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How Would Parity in Recruiting Change if Student-Athletes Could be Paid?

The main argument made with parity claims paying student-athletes would lead to a larger discrepancy in the number of top recruits playing at the top universities. Recruiting classes matter because ultimately the universities with top recruiting classes are the most likely to make runs to the Championship game. If you need further proof, check out this article from ESPN discussing how recruiting data can help predict the National Champion.

However, it feels like there's the parity in College Football right now is already skewed towards the top with much better talent at the top schools in the Power 5 conferences and not many on teams from the mid-majors. The circles below represent the scores of top teams for their recruiting classes based on a few different limitations and using the ESPN top 300 recruits. The scores were determined by giving the top 300 recruits a score: the top recruit was 300 points, the second recruit was 299 points, and so on with the 300th recruit being 1 point and then summing the scores for each recruit. To determine the circle size, the school's scores were divided by the total number of points (45,150) making it so the circles can be compared within the method and between the methods. To learn more about how the recruiting class was broken down in each method, click the titles above the circles.

A quick note: the colleges, number of recruits, and scores can be seen by clicking on the circles. Including the colleges puts more of a "face" to the numbers especially when it comes to monetary value. However, the main intention is to look at the number and size of the circles presented in each method as opposed to the actual schools. Technically, the schools could change, but the circles would stay as a similar size in the future. For example, in 2018 USC performed poorly on the field, however, realistically they would likely compete for top recruits.

Actual 2019 Signings

These scores were determined by looking at where the top 300 recruits of the 2019 class actually signed. Therefore, this method required no assumptions.

Alabama logo
University of Alabama
26 recruits
4,977 points
Georgia logo
University of Georgia
16 recruits
3,082 points
Texas logo
University of Texas
13 recruits
2,236 points
Auburn logo
Auburn University
12 recruits
2,196 points
Texas A&M logo
Texas A&M University
13 recruits
2,192 points
LSU logo
Louisiana State University
12 recruits
2,028 points
Oklahoma logo
University of Oklahoma
11 recruits
1,902 points
Clemson logo
Clemson University
12 recruits
1,891 points
Oregon logo
University of Oregon
10 recruits
1,800 points
Florida logo
University of Florida
12 recruits
1,798 points
Michigan logo
University of Michigan
13 recruits
1,787 points
Ohio State logo
The Ohio State University
10 recruits
1,783 points
Tennessee logo
University of Tennessee
11 recruits
1,782 points
Florida State logo
Florida State University
10 recruits
1,430 points
Penn State logo
Pennsylvania State University
9 recruits
1,373 points
Notre Dame logo
University of Notre Dame
12 recruits
1,139 points
Washington logo
University of Washington
7 recruits
923 points
South Carolina logo
University of South Carolina
6 recruits
854 points
USC logo
University of Southern California
8 recruits
839 points
Stanford logo
Stanford University
7 recruits
817 points
Arizona State logo
Arizona State University
3 recruits
640 points
Arkansas logo
University of Arkansas
4 recruits
586 points
Illinois logo
University of Illinois
3 recruits
573 points
Wisconsin logo
University of Wisconsin
2 recruits
566 points
Michigan State logo
Michigan State University
2 recruits
526 points
Ole Miss logo
University of Mississippi
5 recruits
516 points
Miami logo
University of Miami
3 recruits
396 points
Purdue logo
Purdue University
3 recruits
326 points
Nebraska logo
University of Nebraska
5 recruits
291 points
UNC logo
University of North Carolina
3 recruits
277 points
NC State logo
North Carolina State University
2 recruits
276 points
Oklahoma State logo
Oklahoma State University
2 recruits
234 points
Baylor logo
Baylor University
2 recruits
232 points
Virginia logo
University of Virginia
1 recruit
226 points
Maryland logo
University of Maryland
2 recruits
214 points
Virginia Tech logo
Virginia Polytechnic University
3 recruits
201 points
BYU logo
Brigham Young University
1 recruit
192 points
UCLA logo
University of California, Los Angeles
1 recruit
167 points
Louisville logo
University of Louisville
1 recruit
143 points
Indiana logo
University of Indiana
2 recruits
135 points
Missouri logo
University of Missouri
2 recruits
127 points
Kansas State logo
Kansas State University
2 recruits
105 points
Arizona logo
University of Arizona
1 recruit
100 points
Iowa logo
University of Iowa
2 recruits
90 points
BC logo
Boston College
1 recruit
81 points
Northwestern logo
Northwestern University
1 recruit
72 points
Boise State logo
Boise State University
2 recruits
58 points
West Virginia logo
West Virginia University
1 recruit
37 points
Minnesota logo
University of Minnesota
1 recruit
15 points
Kentucky logo
University of Kentucky
1 recruit
11 points

Remaining Starting Spot

The main assumption for the remaining starting spot method was that a recruit would go to the highest ranked school (based on AP rankings at the end of the 2018-2019 season) that did not already have a recruit at the same position in the 2019 class. Each school can have: 1 quarterback, 1 running back, 1 center, 2 offensive guards, 2 offensive tackles, 1 tight end, three wide receivers, 2 defensive tackles, 2 defensive ends, 3 linebackers, 2 safeties, and 2 cornerbacks. As a result, the top recruit "went" to Clemson, and the number nine recruit was the first player to "go" to Alabama being the fourth Offensive tackle on the board.

Another key assumption made was that some positions are similar enough for players to switch if a higher ranked school still had that postition. For example, athletes regularly switch between offensive guard and offensive tackle.

Clemson logo
Clemson University
22 recruits
6,277 points
Alabama logo
University of Alabama
22 recruits
5,846 points
Ohio State logo
The Ohio State University
22 recruits
5,303 points
Oklahoma logo
University of Oklahoma
22 recruits
4,800 points
Notre Dame logo
University of Notre Dame
22 recruits
4,223 points
LSU logo
Louisiana State University
21 recruits
3,656 points
Florida logo
University of Florida
21 recruits
3,210 points
Georgia logo
University of Georgia
21 recruits
2,637 points
Texas logo
University of Texas
20 recruits
2,134 points
Washington State logo
Washington State University
20 recruits
1,671 points
UCF logo
University of Central Florida
20 recruits
1,195 points
Kentucky logo
University of Kentucky
14 recruits
900 points
Washington logo
University of Washington
12 recruits
642 points
Michigan logo
University of Michigan
8 recruits
474 points
Syracuse logo
Syracuse University
5 recruits
381 points
Texas A&M logo
Texas A&M University
5 recruits
271 points
Penn State logo
Pennsylvania State University
3 recruits
205 points
Fresno State logo
California State University, Fresno
2 recruits
180 points
Army logo
United States Military Academy
2 recruits
167 points
West Virginia logo
West Virginia University
2 recruits
158 points
Northwestern logo
Northwestern University
2 recruits
155 points
Utah State logo
Utah State University
2 recruits
146 points
Boise State logo
Boise State University
2 recruits
136 points
Cincinatti logo
University of Cincinatti
2 recruits
104 points
Iowa logo
University of Iowa
1 recruit
81 points
Appalachian State logo
Appalachian State University
1 recruit
68 points
Mississippi State logo
Mississippi State University
1 recruit
48 points
Utah logo
University of Utah
1 recruit
40 points
UAB logo
University of Alabama at Birmingham
1 recruit
36 points
Iowa State logo
Iowa State University
1 recruit
6 points

Remaining Scholarship

The remaining scholarship method began by looking up how many scholarships the top ranked schools (based on AP rankings at the end of the 2018-2019 season) had available for the 2019 recruiting class. The method assumes that the top recruit will go to the top school with a scholarship remaining. So for example, Clemson presumably has 23 full scholarships for the 2019 recruiting class, so the top 23 recruits "went" to Clemson.

Scholarship data is from 247 sports 2019 scholarship distribution database

Clemson logo
Clemson University
23 recruits
6,647 points
Florida logo
University of Florida
25 recruits
5,800 points
Texas logo
University of Texas
26 recruits
4,797 points
Georgia logo
University of Georgia
22 recruits
4,587 points
Syracuse logo
Syracuse University
26 recruits
3,679 points
Oklahoma logo
University of Oklahoma
13 recruits
3,393 points
LSU logo
Louisiana State University
10 recruits
2,495 points
Penn State logo
Pennsylvania State University
25 recruits
2,400 points
Texas A&M logo
Texas A&M University
20 recruits
2,370 points
Alabama logo
University of Alabama
8 recruits
2,188 points
Northwestern logo
Northwestern University
23 recruits
1,656 points
Washington logo
University of Washington
9 recruits
1,431 points
UCF logo
University of Central Florida
8 recruits
1,340 points
Boise State logo
Boise State University
27 recruits
999 points
Utah State logo
Utah State University
10 recruits
555 points
Ohio State logo
The Ohio State University
2 recruits
537 points
Cincinatti logo
Universit of Cincinatti
16 recruits
248 points
Iowa logo
University of Iowa
7 recruits
28 points

Remaining Money with Limitations

The limited money method of dividing the top recruits into specific colleges required the most assumptions. The main starting point was this article by Joe Nocera by the New York Times which suggests a way to start paying student-athletes. First, each team would have a salary cap of $3 million. Nocera also suggests there is a minimum salary of $25,000 per player.

Even more assumptions were made. First, the $3 million is for the whole team so each team actually only has $750,000 to spend on the 2019 recruiting class. However, it also had to be assumed that with the limitation, teams would attempt to spend this money intelligently. This lead to a few assumptions: each school would only spend half of their budget on the top 100 recruits, a school would only spend $100,000 on one recruit, a school would only spend $90,000 on one recruit, a school would only spend $80,000 on one recruit, a school would only spend $70,000 on one recruit, a school would only spend $60,000 on one recruit, a school would only spend $50,000 on one recruit, and no school would pay for more than 20 recruits from the top 300.

The last assumption was to figure out how to break down how much each player would get paid. Salaries were assumed using NFL Draft data from sportrac. The percent change in NFL draft salaries based on draft order was applied to the college athletes based on ranking starting with the assumption of a $25,000 minimum salary for the 300th recruit and then ending with a maximum salary of $100,000 for all of the recruits at or above that number.

Oklahoma logo
University of Oklahoma
19 recruits
3,579 points
Clemson logo
Clemson University
16 recruits
3,512 points
Notre Dame logo
University of Notre Dame
19 recruits
3,508 points
LSU logo
Louisiana State University
20 recruits
3,439 points
Alabama logo
University of Alabama
16 recruits
3,386 points
Ohio State logo
The Ohio State University
17 recruits
3,378 points
Florida logo
University of Florida
20 recruits
3,350 points
Georgia logo
University of Georgia
20 recruits
3,136 points
Texas logo
University of Texas
20 recruits
3,076 points
Washington State logo
Washington State University
20 recruits
2,998 points
UCF logo
University of Central Florida
20 recruits
2,812 points
Kentucky logo
University of Kentucky
20 recruits
2,620 points
Washington logo
University of Washington
20 recruits
1,181 points
Michigan logo
University of Michigan
20 recruits
819 points
Syracuse logo
Syracuse University
19 recruits
457 points
Texas A&M logo
Texas A&M University
1 recruits
285 points
Penn State logo
Pennsylvania State University
1 recruits
284 points
Northwestern logo
Northwestern University
1 recruits
283 points
Boise State logo
Boise State University
1 recruits
282 points
Iowa logo
University of Iowa
1 recruits
281 points
Stanford logo
Stanford University
1 recruits
280 points
Mississippi State logo
Mississippi State University
1 recruits
279 points
Utah logo
University of Utah
1 recruits
278 points
Tennessee logo
University of Tennessee
1 recruits
277 points
Auburn logo
University of Auburn
1 recruits
276 points
Wisconsin logo
University of Wisconsin
1 recruits
275 points
Michigan State logo
Michigan State University
1 recruits
274 points
Florida State logo
Florida State University
1 recruits
273 points
Oregon logo
University of Oregon
1 recruits
272 points

Remaining Percent of Revenue

Relatively few assumptions were made for the percent of revenue method, however, it is likely the least realistic. The schools were ranked by football revenue according to data from Equity in Athletics. From here, it was assumed that schools would spend 15 percent of their football revenue on paying student athletes. The salaries were determined based on the percent differences in the NFL Draft signing bonuses according to sportrac. Beginning with the 300th recruit receiving a salary of $25,000, the large increases in NFL bonuses based on higher draft rounds means that the top recruit would be paid $7.9 million. From here, the top schools would be willing to spend on the highest remaining recruit they could afford.

The problems here include: the top salary is clearly way to high, teams would almost definitely spend their money wiser instead of spending their entire budget on the very top recruits, and the 15 percent came drastically close to profit numbers in many cases.

Ohio State logo
The Ohio State University
20 recruits
4,951 points
Florida State logo
Florida State University
20 recruits
4,510 points
LSUlogo
Louisiana State University
20 recruits
4,110 points
Florida logo
University of Florida
20 recruits
3,710 points
Penn State logo
Pennsylvania State University
20 recruits
3,286 points
Auburn logo
Auburn University
12 recruits
2,998 points
Washington logo
University of Washington
20 recruits
2,850 points
Wisconsin logo
University of Wisconsin
20 recruits
2,441 points
Georgia logo
University of Georgia
9 recruits
2,123 points
Arkansas logo
University of Arkansas
20 recruits
2,018 points
Oklahoma logo
University of Oklahoma
7 recruits
1,843 points
Notre Dame logo
University of Notre Dame
7 recruits
1,787 points
Texas A&M logo
Texas A&M University
20 recruits
1,597 points
Michigan logo
University of Michigan
5 recruits
1,418 points
Nebraska logo
University of Nebraska
20 recruits
1,166points
Texas logo
University of Texas
5 recruits
1,139 points
Alabama logo
University of Alabama
4 recruits
1,132 points
Tennessee logo
University of Tennessee
4 recruits
943 points
Oregon logo
University of Oregon
20 recruits
750 points
Michigan State logo
Michigan State University
20 recruits
350 points
Ole Miss logo
University of Mississippi
7 recruits
28 points